By 2030, people over 65 in Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, will account for almost half the adult population, compared with one-fifth now. And unless the country’s birth rate recovers from its present low of 1.3 per woman, over the same period its population of under 35 will shrink about twice as fast as the older population will grow. The net result will be that the total population, now 82m, will decline to 70m-73m. The number of people of working age will fall by a full quarter, from 40m today to 30m.
The German demographics are far from exceptional. In Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, the population will peak in 2005, at around 125m. By 2050, according to the more pessimistic government forecasts, the population will have shrunk to around 95m. Long before that, around 2030, the share of the over-65's in the adult population will have grown to about half. And the birth rate in Japan, as in Germany, is down to 1.3 per woman. The figures are pretty much the same for most other developed countries, and for a good many emerging ones, especially China.
Life expectancy—and with it the number of older people—has been going up steadily for 300 years. But the decline in the number of young people is something new. The only developed country that has so far avoided this fate is America. But even there the birth rate is well below replacement level, and the proportion of older people in the adult population will rise steeply in the next 30 years. All this means that winning the support of older people will become a political imperative in every developed country. Pensions have already become a regular election issue. There is also a growing debate about the desirability of immigration to maintain the population and workforce. Together these two issues are transforming the political landscape in every developed country.
By 2030 at the latest, the age at which full retirement benefits start will have risen to the mid-70’s in all developed countries, and benefits for healthy pensioners will be substantially lower than they are today. Indeed, fixed retirement ages for people in reasonable physical and mental condition may have been abolished to prevent the pension burden on the working population from becoming unbearable. Already young and middle-aged people at work suspect that there will not be enough pension money to go round when they themselves reach traditional retirement age. But politicians everywhere continue to pretend that they can save the current pensions system.
1.In Germany,（ ）.
2.The problem that the population becomes aging （ ）.
3.A new tendency in demographic change is that （ ）.
4.What is the political implication of the demographic change in the developed countries?
5.By 2030 the governments in developed countries may put an end to fixed retirement ages （ ）.
问题1选项
A.birth rate has gone up to 1.3 per woman
B.people over 65 now constitutes about half the adult population
C.its population of under-35's is twice as large as that of over-65s
D.by 2030 its working force may have shrunk by 25%
问题2选项
A.is exceptional to Germany
B.has become universal
C.can be relieved in Japan with the shrinkage of its population to around 95m
D.makes the economic outlook in the developed countries even more gloomy
问题3选项
A.life expectancy has been going up steadily
B.there is a decline of the young population
C.in America the birth rate has gone above replacement level
D.the old population has risen sharply in USA
问题4选项
A.Winning the support of older people will become crucial in politics.
B.Pension policy will become a key issue in elections.
C.Immigration should be banned to maintain the workforce.
D.The demographic change will change the political landscape greatly.
问题5选项
A.to save the current pension system
B.to ensure the benefits for healthy pensioners
C.to realize full retirement benefits substantially
D.to relieve the pensions burden on the working population
第1题:D
第2题:B
第3题:B
第4题:A
第5题:D
第1题:
【选项释义】
In Germany, _____. 在德国，_____。
A. birth rate has gone up to 1.3 per woman A. 生育率已上升到每名妇女1.3个孩子
B. people over 65 now constitutes about half the adult population B. 65岁以上人口目前约占成年人口的一半
C. its population of under-35’s is twice as large as that of over-65’s C. 35岁以下的人口是65岁以上人口的两倍
D. by 2030 its working force may have shrunk by 25% D. 到2030年，其劳动力可能减少25%
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干及选项中的关键词In Germany、1.3 per woman可以确定答案所在区域为第一段。根据第一段最后一句：The number of people of working age will fall by a full quarter, from 40m today to 30m（劳动年龄人口将减少整整四分之一，从现在的4000万降至3000万），结合文章一开始提到了“By 2030（到2030年）”，可知第一段用将来时态表述的句子，都是在说2030年的情况，所以正确答案为D选项。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“生育率已上升到每名妇女1.3个孩子”，根据第一段关键信息：And unless the country’s birth rate recovers from its present low of 1.3 per woman, over the same period its population of under 35 will shrink about twice as fast as the older population will grow（除非该国的出生率从目前每名妇女生育1.3个孩子的低点回升，否则在同一时期，35岁以下人口的减少速度将是老年人口增长速度的两倍），可知每名妇女生育1.3个孩子是德国目前的低点，如果上升应该会超过1.3个孩子，该选项属于曲解原文；
B选项“65岁以上人口目前约占成年人口的一半”，根据第一段第一句：By 2030, people over 65 in Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, will account for almost half the adult population, compared with one-fifth now（到2030年，世界第三大经济体德国65岁以上的人口将占成年人口的近一半，而目前这一比例为20%），可知目前65岁以上的人口占成年人口20%，该选项属于曲解原文；
C选项“35岁以下的人口是65岁以上人口的两倍”，根据第一段关键信息：its population of under 35 will shrink about twice as fast as the older population will grow（35岁以下人口的减少速度将是老年人口增长速度的两倍），可知该选项属于曲解原文。
第2题:
【选项释义】
The problem that the population becomes aging _____. 人口老龄化问题_____。
A. is exceptional to Germany A. 德国独有
B. has become universal B. 已成为普遍现象
C. can be relieved in Japan with the shrinkage of its population to around 95m C. 在日本可以得到缓解，随着人口减少到9500万左右
D. makes the economic outlook in the developed countries even more gloomy D. 使发达国家的经济前景更加暗淡
【考查点】判断推理题。
【解题思路】根据第二句关键信息：And the birth rate in Japan, as in Germany, is down to 1.3 per woman. The figures are pretty much the same for most other developed countries, and for a good many emerging ones, especially China（和德国一样，日本的出生率下降到每名妇女生育1.3个孩子。大多数其他发达国家和许多新兴国家，尤其是中国的数据几乎相同），由此可推断：人口老龄化问题已成为普遍现象，所以正确答案为B选项。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“德国独有”，根据第二句第一句：The German demographics are far from exceptional（德国的人口结构远非例外），由此可推测人口老龄化问题并非德国独有，该选项属于曲解原文；
C选项“在日本可以得到缓解，随着人口减少到9500万左右”，根据第二段关键信息：By 2050, according to the more pessimistic government forecasts, the population will have shrunk to around 95m（根据更为悲观的政府预测，到2050年，日本人口将缩减至9500万左右），可知当日本人口缩减至9500万左右，其老龄化问题是加剧了，该选项属于曲解原文；
D选项“使发达国家的经济前景更加暗淡”，原文没有提及，属于无中生有。
第3题:
【选项释义】
A new tendency in demographic change is that _____. 人口变化的一个新趋势是_____。
A. life expectancy has been going up steadily A. 预期寿命稳步上升
B. there is a decline of the young population B. 年轻人口在减少
C. in America the birth rate has gone above replacement level C. 美国的出生率已超过更替水平
D. the old population has risen sharply in USA D. 美国老龄人口已经在急剧增加
【考查点】判断推理题。
【解题思路】根据题干及选项中的关键词life expectancy、decline of the young可以确定答案所在区域为第三段。根据第三段前两句：Life expectancy—and with it the number of older people—has been going up steadily for 300 years. But the decline in the number of young people is something new（300年来，人类的预期寿命——以及随之而来的老年人口数量——一直在稳步上升。但年轻人数量的下降是一件新鲜事），由此可推断人口变化的一个新趋势是年轻人口在减少，所以正确答案为B选项。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“预期寿命稳步上升”，根据第三段第一句可知：300年来，一直在稳步上升，并非新趋势，该选项属于曲解原文；
C选项“美国的出生率已超过更替水平”，根据第三段关键信息：The only developed country that has so far avoided this fate is America. But even there the birth rate is well below replacement level（目前为止，唯一一个避免了这种命运的发达国家是美国。但即使在那里，出生率也远低于更替水平），可知该选项属于曲解原文；
D选项“美国老龄人口已经在急剧增加”，根据第三段关键信息：and the proportion of older people in the adult population will rise steeply in the next 30 years（而且老年人在成年人口中的比例将在未来30年急剧上升），可知该选项属于曲解原文。
第4题:
【选项释义】
What is the political implication of the demographic change in the developed countries? 发达国家人口结构变化的政治影响是什么？
A. Winning the support of older people will become crucial in politics. A. 赢得老年人的支持将成为政治的关键。
B. Pension policy will become a key issue in elections. B. 养老金政策将成为选举中的关键问题。
C. Immigration should be banned to maintain the workforce. C. 应禁止移民以保持劳动力。
D. The demographic change will change the political landscape greatly. D. 人口结构的变化将极大地改变政治格局。
【考查点】判断推理题。
【解题思路】根据选项中的关键词Winning the support of older people、Pension可以确定答案所在区域为第三段。根据第三段关键信息：All this means that winning the support of older people will become a political imperative in every developed country（所有这些都意味着，赢得老年人的支持将成为每个发达国家的一项政治要务），由此可推断正确答案为A选项。
【干扰项排除】
B选项“养老金政策将成为选举中的关键问题”，根据第三段关键信息：Pensions have already become a regular election issue（养老金已经成为选举的常规议题），可知该选项属于曲解原文；
C选项“应禁止移民以保持劳动力”，根据第三段关键信息：There is also a growing debate about the desirability of immigration to maintain the population and workforce（关于移民维持人口和劳动力的可取性的争论也越来越多），可知该选项属于曲解原文；
D选项“人口结构的变化将极大地改变政治格局”，根据第三段最后一句：Together these two issues are transforming the political landscape in every developed country（这两个问题共同改变着每一个发达国家的政治格局），可知该选项属于曲解原文。
第5题:
【选项释义】
By 2030 the governments in developed countries may put an end to fixed retirement ages _____. 到2030年，发达国家政府可能会终止固定退休年龄的做法，_____。
A. to save the current pension system A. 挽救当前的养老金制度
B. to ensure the benefits for healthy pensioners B. 确保健康养老金领取者的福利
C. to realize full retirement benefits substantially C. 大幅实现全额退休金
D. to relieve the pensions burden on the working population D. 减轻劳动人口的养老金负担
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词By 2030、fixed retirement可以确定答案所在区域为最后一段。根据最后一段关键信息：Indeed, fixed retirement ages for people in reasonable physical and mental condition may have been abolished to prevent the pension burden on the working population from becoming unbearable（事实上，为了防止劳动人口的养老金负担变得难以承受，对于身体和精神状况合理的人来说，固定的退休年龄可能已经被取消），由此可知正确答案为D选项。
【干扰项排除】A、B、C选项均属于曲解原文。
