It is a curious paradox that we think of the physical sciences as “hard”, the social sciences as “soft”, and the biological sciences as somewhere in between. This is interpreted to mean that our knowledge of physical systems is more certain than our knowledge of biological systems, and these in turn are more certain than our knowledge of social systems. In terms of our capacity to sample the relevant universes, however, and the probability that our images of these universes are at least approximately correct, one suspects that a reverse order is more reasonable. We are able to sample earth’s social systems with some degree of confidence that we have a reasonable sample of the total universe being investigated. D.Our knowledge of social systems, therefore, while it is in many ways extremely inaccurate, is not likely to be seriously overturned by new discoveries. Even the folk knowledge in social systems on which ordinary life is based in earning, spending, organizing, marrying, taking part in political activities, fighting, and so on, is not very dissimilar from the more sophisticated images of the social system derived from the social sciences, even though it is built upon the very imperfect samples of personal experience.
In contrast, our image of the astronomical universe, of or even of earth's geological history, can easily be subject to revolutionary changes as new data comes in and new theories are worked out. If we define the “security” our image of various parts of the total system as the probability of their suffering significant changes, then we would reverse the order of hardness and see the social sciences as the most secure, the physical sciences as the least secure, and again the biological sciences as somewhere in between. Our image of the astronomical universe is the least secure of all simply because we observe such a fantastically small sample of it and its record-keeping is trivial as compared with the rich records of the social systems, or even the limited records of biological systems. Records of the astronomical universe, despite the fact that we see distant things as they were long ago, are limited in the extreme.
Even in regard to such a close neighbor as the moon, which we have actually visited, theories about its origin and history are extremely different, contradictory, and hard to choose among. Our knowledge of physical evolution is incomplete and highly insecure.
1. The author believes that our knowledge of social systems is more secure than that of physical systems because______.
2. The chances of the physical sciences being subject to great changes are the biggest because______.
3. We know less about the astronomical universe than we do about any social system because______.
问题1选项
A.the records of social systems are more reliable
B.it is based on a fairly representative quantity of data
C.new discoveries are less likely to occur in social sciences
D.it is not based on personal experience
问题2选项
A.new information is constantly coming in
B.our knowledge of the physical world is inaccurate
C.the direction of their development is difficult to predict
D.contradictory theories keep emerging all the time
问题3选项
A.theories of its origin and history are varied
B.our knowledge of it is highly insecure
C.only a very small sample of it has been observed
D.few scientists are involved in the study of astronomy
第1题:
1.事实细节题。 题干“作者认为，我们对社会系统的知识比物理系统的知识更可靠，因为____”，可定位到第1段第5句Our knowledge of social systems, therefore, while it is in many ways extremely inaccurate, is not likely to be seriously overturned by new discoveries.（因此，虽然我们对社会制度的认识在许多方面极其不准确，但是它不太可能被新的发现完全推翻。）我们对社会系统的知识不容易被新的发现推翻即更可靠，C选项“新发现不太可能出现在社会科学领域”，表述与原文不符，不是没有新发现，而是新发现不会完全推翻现有理论，排除。根据原文therefore提示，原因可以定位到前一句话We are able to sample earth’s social systems with some degree of confidence that we have a reasonable sample of the total universe being investigated.（我们有能力对地球的社会系统进行抽样，并有一定的信心对整个系统中合理的样本进行调查。）由此可知，因为有合理的样本数据，我们对社会系统的认识更可靠，B选项“它依据的数据量是非常有代表性的”，表述符合原文；D选项“它不是基于个人经验”，可定位到第1段最后一句even though it is built upon the very imperfect samples of personal experience.（……即使它是建立在非常不完善的个人经验上），由此可知，它是基于个人经验的，只不过这对正确性的影响不大，选项表述不正确；A选项“关于社会系统的记录更可靠”，可定位到第2段倒数第2句...compared with the rich records of the social systems...（……和丰富的关于社会系统的记录相比……），文中指提到了关于社会系统的记录丰富，并没有就可靠程度进行比较，选项表述与原文不符，排除。因此，本题最佳选项为B。
2. 事实细节题。题干“物理科学最有可能发生巨大变化的原因是____”，可定位到原文第3段第1句In contrast, our image of the astronomical universe, of even of earth’s geological history, can easily be subject to revolutionary changes as new data comes in and new theories are worked out.（相比之下，我们对宇宙的认识，甚至对地球的地质历史的认识，都很容易随着新数据的加入和新理论的提出而发生革命性的变化。）由此可知，原因有两个，“新数据的加入”和“新理论的出现”，A选项“新信息不断地加入”符合原文；B选项“我们对物质世界的认识是不准确的”，可定位到原文第2段第2句If we define the “security” our image of various parts of the total system as the probability of their suffering significant changes, then...the physical sciences as the least secure...（如果我们将“可靠性”定义为整个系统的各个部分遭受重大变化的可能性的话，那么……物理科学是最不可靠的……）由此可知，物理科学最不可靠即我们对物质世界的认识不准确，是因为关于物理世界的理论很容易发生重大变化，而题干问的是很容易发生重大变化的原因是什么，选项表述答非所问；C选项“发展的方向很难预测”，原文并未提及，排除；原文并没有说新出现的理论是与现有理论是矛盾的，D选项“矛盾的理论层出不穷”不符合原文；因此，本题最佳选项为A。
3. 判断推理题。题干“我们对宇宙的了解比我们对任何社会系统的了解都要少，是因为____”可定位到原文第3段倒数第2句Our image of the astronomical universe is the least secure of all simply because we observe such a fantastically small sample of it and its record-keeping is trivial as compared with the rich records of the social systems, or even the limited records of biological systems.（我们对宇宙的认识是最可靠的，是因为我们观察到的是如此小的一个样本，并且关于它的记录，与社会系统丰富的记录甚至生物系统有限的记录相比，是微不足道的。）由此可知，我们对宇宙的了解很少是因为样本和记录很少。根据原文第1段第4句We are able to sample earth’s social systems with some degree of confidence that we have a reasonable sample of the total universe being investigated.（我们有能力对地球的社会系统进行抽样，并有一定的信心对整个系统中合理的样本进行调查）。可知，我们对社会系统的认识可靠是因为有合理的样本数据，综合这两点来看，我们对宇宙的了解很少是因为样本的缘故，C选项“只有非常小的一部分样本已经被观察到”，符合原文；A选项“关于它的起源和历史有各种各样的理论”，可定位到原文最后一段Even in regard to ... the moon, ... theories about its origin and history are extremely different, contradictory, and hard to choose among.（即使是对于……月球……，关于它的起源和历史的理论也是截然不同，相互矛盾，难以选择。）由此可知，A选项表述的是对月球的认识，只是文章举的一个例子，与题干无关，排除；B选项“我们对它的认识是非常不可靠的”，因为对宇宙了解比较少，所以形成的认识也不可靠，B选项因果倒置，排除；D选项“很少的科学家参与天文学的研究”，原文并未提及“参与天文学研究的科学家”少，虽然提到了关于宇宙的记录很少，但是并未提到记录少的原因，D选项属于主观臆测，排除。因此，本题最佳选项为C。
第2题:
第3题:
