“Depression” is more than a serious economic downturn. What distinguishes a depression from a harsh recession is paralyzing fear—fear of the unknown so great that it causes consumers, businesses, and investors to retreat and panic. They save up cash and desperately cut spending. They sell stocks and other assets. A shattering loss of confidence inspires behavior that overwhelms the normal self-correcting mechanisms that usually prevent a recession from becoming deep and prolonged: a depression.
Comparing 1929 with 2007-09, Christina Romer, the head of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, finds the initial blow to confidence far greater now than then. True, stock prices fell a third from September to December 1929, but fewer Americans then owned stocks. Moreover, home prices barely dropped. From December 1928 to December 1929, total household wealth declined only 3%. By contrast, the loss in household wealth between December 2007 and December 2008 was 17%. Both stocks and homes, more widely held, dropped more. Thus traumatized, the economy might have gone into a free fall ending in depression. Indeed, it did go into free fall. Shoppers refrained from buying cars, appliances, and other big-ticket items. Spending on such “durables” dropped at a 12% annual rate in 2008’s third quarter, a 20% rate in the fourth. And business shelved investment projects.
That these huge declines didn’t lead to depression mainly reflects, as Romer argues, countermeasures taken by the government. Private markets for goods, services, labor, and securities do mostly self-correct, but panic feeds on itself and disarms these stabilizing tendencies. In this situation, only government can protect the economy as a whole, because most individuals and companies are involved in the self-defeating behavior of self-protection.
Government’s failure to perform this role in the early 1930s transformed recession into depression. Scholars will debate which interventions this time—the Federal Reserve’s support of a failing credit system, guarantees of band debt. Obama’s “stimulus” plan and bank “stress test”—counted most in preventing a recurrence. Regardless, all these complex measures had the same psychological purpose: to reassure people that this free fall would stop and, thereby, curb the fear that would perpetuate a free fall.
All these improved confidence. But the consumer sentiment index remains week, and all the rebound has occurred in Americans’ evaluation of future economic conditions not the present. Unemployment (9.8%) is abysmal, the recovery’s strength unclear. Here, too, there is an echo from the 1930s. Despite bottoming out in 1933, the Depression didn’t end until World War II. Some government policies aided recovery; some hindered it. The good news today is that the bad news is not worse.
66. Why do consumers, businesses and investors retreat and panic in times of depression?
67. What does Christina Romer say about the current economic recession?
68. Why didn’t the current recession turn into a depression according to Christina Romer?
69. What is the chief purpose of all the countermeasures taken?
70. What does the author think of today’s economic situation?
问题1选项
A.They suffer great losses in stocks, property and other assets.
B.They find the self-correcting mechanisms dysfunctioning.
C.They are afraid the normal social order will be paralyzed.
D.They don’t know what is going to happen in the future.
问题2选项
A.Its severity is no match for the Great Depression of 1929.
B.Its initial blow to confidence far exceeded that of 1929.
C.It has affected house owners more than stock holders.
D.It has resulted in a free fall of the prices of commodities.
问题3选项
A.The government intervened effectively.
B.Private markets corrected themselves.
C.People refrained from buying durables and big ticket items.
D.Individuals and companies adopted self-protection measures.
问题4选项
A.To create job opportunities.
B.To curb the fear of a lasting free fall.
C.To stimulate domestic consumption.
D.To rebuild the credit system.
问题5选项
A.It may worsen without further stimulation.
B.It will see a rebound sooner or later.
C.It has not gone from bad to worse.
D.It does not give people reason for pessimism.
第1题:D
第2题:B
第3题:A
第4题:B
第5题:C
66.细节事实题。题干意思是“为什么消费者、企业和投资者在萧条时期会退缩和恐慌？”。根据第一段第二句What distinguishes a depression from a harsh recession is paralyzing fear—fear of the unknown so great that it causes consumers, businesses, and investors to retreat and panic.（大萧条和严重的衰退的区别在于麻痹性的恐惧——对未知的恐惧如此之大，以至于导致消费者、企业和投资者撤退和恐慌）可知，消费者、企业和投资者在萧条时期会退缩和恐慌是因为他们对未知的恐惧，所以D项“他们不知道将来会发生什么”正确，C项“他们害怕正常的社会秩序会瘫痪”错误。A项“他们在股票、房地产和其他资产上遭受了巨大损失”，出售股票和其他资产是他们会采取的措施，而非原因；B项“他们发现自我纠正机制失灵”，自我纠正机制失灵是由于人们出售股票和资产，削减开支等措施而导致的，和消费者、企业和投资者在萧条时期会退缩和恐慌的原因无关。因此，该题选择D项正确。
67.细节事实题。题干意思是“Christina Romer对当前的经济衰退有什么看法？”。根据题干关键词Christina Romer可以定位到文章第二段第一句Comparing 1929 with 2007-09, Christina Romer, the head of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, finds the initial blow to confidence far greater now than then.（将1929年与2007-2009年相比，奥巴马总统经济顾问委员会主席Christina Romer发现，目前对信心的最初打击要比当时严重得多）可知，B项“它最初对信心的打击远远超过了1929年”正确。A项“它的严重性比不上1929年的大萧条”错误，文中提到对信心的打击远远比1929年严重；第二段第六句提到Both stocks and homes, more widely held, dropped more.（更广泛持有的股市和楼市跌幅更大），可知经济衰退对股票持有者和楼盘拥有者的影响都很大，但并没有做比较，C项“它对房主的影响大于股票持有者”错误；第二段最后提到Indeed, it did go into free fall. Shoppers refrained from buying cars, appliances, and other big-ticket items.（事实上，它的确是自由落体；购物者不再购买汽车、电器和其他高价商品），可知，经济衰退影响了人们对汽车、电器等耐用品的花费，但文中没有提到所有的商品都是自由落体，D项“这导致了商品价格的自由下跌”错误。因此，该题选择B项正确。
68.细节事实题。题干意思是“根据Christina Romer的说法，为什么当前的衰退没有演变成萧条？”。根据第三段第一句That these huge declines didn’t lead to depression mainly reflects, as Romer argues, countermeasures taken by the government.（正如罗默所说，这些巨大的下降并没有导致经济萧条，这主要反映了政府所采取的对策）可知，A项“政府有效干预”正确；第三段后面提到Private markets for goods, services, labor, and securities do mostly self-correct, but panic feeds on itself and disarms these stabilizing tendencies. In this situation, only government can protect the economy as a whole, because most individuals and companies are involved in the self-defeating behavior of self-protection.（商品、服务、劳动力和证券的私人市场大多能自我纠正，但恐慌会自生自灭，并解除这些稳定的倾向；在这种情况下，只有政府才能保护整个经济，因为大多数个人和企业都卷入了自我保护的自暴自弃行为），所以B项“私人市场自我修正”、C项“人们避免购买耐用品和大件物品”和D项“个人和企业采取了自我保护措施”都不正确。因此，该题选择A项正确。
69.细节事实题。题干意思是“采取这些对策的主要目的是什么？”。第四段谈到了应对经济萧条的措施，即奥巴马的“刺激”计划和银行“压力测试”，接着在最后一句提到了这些措施的目的：Regardless, all these complex measures had the same psychological purpose: to reassure people that this free fall would stop and, thereby, curb the fear that would perpetuate a free fall.（无论如何，所有这些复杂的措施都有同样的心理目的：安抚人们，让他们相信自由落体将会停止，从而抑制自由落体将会持续的恐惧），故B项“抑制对持续自由落体的恐惧”正确。A项“创造就业机会”、C项“刺激国内消费”和D项“重建信用体系”都是属于采取的对策，而非目的。因此，该题选择B项正确。
70.细节事实题。题干意思是“作者对当今的经济形势有什么看法？”。文章最后一段作者表达了自己对目前经济形式的看法，在最后两句有体现：Some government policies aided recovery; some hindered it. The good news today is that the bad news is not worse.（一些政府政策帮助了经济复苏，一些政府政策阻碍了经济复苏；但今天的好消息是，坏消息不会更糟），可知作者认为虽然目前的经济形式非常糟糕，但是不会进一步恶化，故C项“它还没有变得更糟”正确。B项“它迟早会有反弹”，文中只提到了1929年经济大萧条的触底反弹，没有讨论到当今经济形势的反弹；A项“如果没有进一步的刺激，情况可能会恶化”和D项“它没有给人们悲观的理由”都与文章不符。因此，该题选择C项正确。
