In my view, such a mechanical prediction misses the mark. For one thing, countries sometimes react to the rise of a single power by “bandwagoning”, much as Mussolini did when he decided to ally with Hitler. Proximity to and perceptions of threat also affect the way in which countries react. The United States benefits from its geographical separation from Europe and Asia in that it often appears as a less proximate threat than neighboring countries inside those regions. Indeed, in 1945, the Unites States was by far the strongest nation on earth, and a mechanical application of balancing theory would have predicted an alliance against it. Instead, Europe and Japan allied with the Americans because the Soviet Union, while weaker in overall power, posed a greater military threat because of its geographical proximity and its lingering revolutionary ambitions. Today, Iraq and Iran both dislike the United States and might be expected to work together to balance American power in the Persian Gulf, but they worry even more about each other. Nationalism can also complicate predictions. For example, if North Korea and South Korea are reunited, they should have a strong incentive to maintain an alliance with a distant power such as the United States in order to balance their two giant neighbors, China and Japan. But intense nationalism resulting in opposition to an American presence could change this if American diplomacy is heavy-headed. Non-state actors can also have an effect, as witnessed by the way cooperation against terrorists changed some states’ behavior after September 2001.
A good case can be made that inequality of power can be a source of peace and stability. No matter how power is measured, some theorists argue, an equal distribution of power among major states has been relatively rare in history, and efforts to maintain a balance have often led to war. On the other hand, inequality of power has often led to peace and stability because there was little point in declaring war on a dominant state. The political scientist Robert Gilpin has argued that “Pax Britannica and Pax Americana, like the Pax Ronuina, ensured an international system of relative peace and security.” And the economist Charles Kindleberger claimed that “for the world economy to be stabilized, there has to be a stabilizer, one stabilizer.” Global governance requires a large state to take the lead. But how much and what kind of inequality of power is necessary-or tolerable-and for how long? If the leading country defines its interests narrowly and uses its weight arrogantly, it increases the incentives for others to coordinate to escape its hegemony.
Some countries chafe under the weight of American power more than others. Hegemony is sometimes used as a term of opprobrium by political leaders in countries such as Russia. The term is used less often or less negatively in countries where American soft power is strong. If hegemony means being able to dictate, or at least dominate, the rules and arrangements by which international relations are conducted, then the United States is hardly a hegemony today. It does have a predominant voice and vote in the IMF, but it cannot alone choose the director. It has not been able to prevail over Europe and Japan in the WTO. It opposed the Land Mines Treaty but could not prevent it from coming into existence.
1.According to this passage, what does the “mechanical prediction” in the first sentence predict?
2.What is the meaning of “if American diplomacy is heavy-headed”？
3.Please list all the factors that affect the ways in which countries’ react to a stronger power.
4.What point does Robert Gilpin try to make in his observation quoted in paragraph 2?
5.What should the leading country do to ensure that other countries would work with it?
