In the future your automobile will run on water instead of gas! You might even drive a flying car! These predictions are some of today’s guesses about what technology might bring tomorrow. However, many past technology predictions show that the future isn’t always easy to guess. Many of the high-tech things our parents thought we’d be using by now simply never appeared.
Ok, not all past predictions have been proven wrong. A few of them have been surprisingly accurate. Some great thinkers predicted the arrival of the credit card, the fax machine and even the internet years before they happened. But for each prediction that has come true today, several others have missed by a mile. Many of these predictions didn’t consider how people would want to use the technology or if people really needed it in their lives or not. Let’s look at some predictions from the not-too-distant past.
Robot Helpers
Where’s the robot in my kitchen? Nowhere of course. And he’s probably not coming anytime soon. Robots do exist today, but mostly in factories and other manufacturing environments. Back in the 1950s however people said that by now personal robots would be in most people’s homes.
So why hasn’t happened? Maybe because robots are still too expensive and clumsy. And probably the idea of robots cooking our dinners and washing our clothes is just too weird. At home we seem to be doing fine without them.
Telephones of tomorrow?
In 1964 an American company introduced the video telephone. They said by the year 2000 most people would have a video phone in their homes. But of course the idea hasn’t caught on yet. Why? The technology worked fine, but it overlooked something obvious: people desire for privacy. Would you want to have a video phone conversation with someone after you just stepped out of the shower? Probably not—it could be uncomfortable! Just because a technology is available doesn’t always mean people will want to use it.
And finally, how about that crazy prediction of the flying car? It remains one of the most fascinating technology ideas to capture our imagination. Keep watching the news or perhaps the sky outside your window to see what the future will bring.
1. According to the passage, which of the following is an example of an accurate prediction?
2. It can be inferred from the passage that ____.
3. What is said of robot helpers at home?
4. Which of the following sentences is closest in meaning to “the idea hasn’t caught on” in paragraph 7?
5. The author seems to suggest that the flying car is ____.
问题1选项
A.The telephone.
B.The credit card.
C.The video game.
D.The dish washer.
问题2选项
A.there are fewer accurate predictions than wrong predictions
B.there are more accurate predictions than wrong predictions
C.accurate predictions may sometimes become wrong predictions
D.wrong predictions may sometimes become accurate predictions
问题3选项
A.They are of a great help to housewives.
B.They will soon be popular in people’s homes.
C.Most families cannot afford to use them at home.
D.Most families cannot manage housework without them.
问题4选项
A.The idea hasn’t been introduced.
B.The idea hasn’t been accepted.
C.The idea hasn’t been proven.
D.The idea hasn’t been rejected.
问题5选项
A.too unsafe to be usable
B.too costly to come into our life
C.a dream that has come true for many people
D.still something in people’s imagination
第1题:B
第2题:A
第3题:C
第4题:B
第5题:D
第1题:
【选项释义】
According to the passage, which of the following is an example of an accurate prediction? 根据文章，下列哪个选项是准确预测的例子？
A. The telephone. A. 电话。
B. The credit card. B. 信用卡。
C. The video game. C. 电子游戏。
D. The dish washer. D. 洗碗机。
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词“准确预测”定位到原文第二段第二、三句“其中有几个是出人意料的准确（surprisingly accurate）。一些伟大的思想家在信用卡（the credit card ）、传真机甚至互联网出现前几年就预言了它们的到来。”可知信用卡是被准确预测的例子，因此B选项正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项根据第二段四五六句“但对于今天实现的每一个预测，其他几个预测都失之毫厘。许多预测没有考虑人们希望如何使用这项技术，也没有考虑人们在生活中是否真的需要这项技术。让我们来看一下不久前的一些预测。”可知下列所举的预测例子都是没有实现的错误预测，而下文举了两个例子，第一是“机器人助手（Robot Helpers）”，第二是“可视电话（the video telephone）”，可知电话这个预测是错误的预测不是准确的预测，属于反向干扰；
C选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
D选项原文未涉及，无中生有。
第2题:
【选项释义】
It can be inferred from the passage that ____. 从文章中可以推断出____。
A. there are fewer accurate predictions than wrong predictions A. 准确的预测比错误的预测要少
B. there are more accurate predictions than wrong predictions B. 准确的预测比错误的预测要多
C. accurate predictions may sometimes become wrong predictions C. 准确的预测有时会变成错误的预测
D. wrong predictions may sometimes become accurate predictions D. 错误的预测有时会变成准确的预测
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据题干第一段倒数第一、二句“然而，许多过去的技术预测（many past technology predictions）表明，未来并不总是容易猜测。许多我们父母认为我们现在应该使用的高科技产品根本就没有出现（never appeared）。”以及第二段第一、二句“好吧，并不是所有过去的预测都被证明是错的。其中有几个（A few of them）是出人意料的准确。”可以推断出错误的预测很多，而只有几个预测成功变成现实了，因此A选项正确。
【干扰项排除】
B选项根据解题思路可知和原文相悖，属于反向干扰；
C选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
D选项原文未涉及，无中生有。
第3题:
【选项释义】
What is said of robot helpers at home? 有关家里的机器人帮手有什么说法？
A. They are of a great help to housewives. A. 它们对家庭主妇有很大的帮助。
B. They will soon be popular in people’s homes. B. 它们很快就会在人们家里流行起来。
C. Most families cannot afford to use them at home. C. 大多数家庭负担不起在家使用它们。
D. Most families cannot manage housework without them. D. 没有它们，大多数家庭无法处理家务。
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干定位到第五段第一句“那么，为什么没有发生呢？”，这句话向我们透露机器人并没有出现在大多数人的家里，接下来第二句给出了原因“也许是因为机器人仍然太昂贵（too expensive）和笨拙。”可知大多数家庭还无法负担起在家使用机器人，因此C选项正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
B选项定位到第四段前三句“我厨房里的机器人在哪里？当然没有。它可能不会很快来（not coming anytime soon）。”可知家庭机器人不会很快在人们的家中流行起来，本选项和原文相悖，属于反向干扰；
D选项原文未涉及，无中生有。
第4题:
【选项释义】
Which of the following sentences is closest in meaning to “the idea hasn’t caught on” in paragraph 7? 下面哪个句子的意思最接近第7段中的“想法还没有流行起来”？
A. The idea hasn’t been introduced. A. 这个想法还没有被引入。
B. The idea hasn’t been accepted. B. 这个想法还没有被接受。
C. The idea hasn’t been proven. C. 这个想法还没有被证实。
D. The idea hasn’t been rejected. D. 这个想法还没有被拒绝。
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词定位到原文第七段“当然，这个想法还没有流行起来。”，结合下文“为什么？这项技术运行良好，但它忽略了一些显而易见的事情：人们渴望隐私（people desire for privacy）。刚洗完澡，你想和别人用视频电话交谈吗？可能不会——这可能会让人不舒服！仅仅因为一项技术是可用的，并不总是意味着人们会想要使用它（people will want to use it）。”可知这个想法还没有流行起来是因为人们不愿意接受这个想法，因此B选项符合题意。
【干扰项排除】
A选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
C选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
D选项原文未涉及，无中生有。
第5题:
【选项释义】
The author seems to suggest that the flying car is ____. 作者似乎在暗示，飞行汽车是____。
A. too unsafe to be usable A. 太不安全而无法使用
B. too costly to come into our life B. 太昂贵而不能进入我们的生活
C. a dream that has come true for many people C. 许多人已经实现的梦想
D. still something in people’s imagination D. 还在人们的想象中
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词“飞行汽车”定位到最后一段第一、二句“最后，关于飞车（flying car）的疯狂预测（crazy prediction）怎么样？它仍然是吸引我们想象力的（imagination）最吸引人的技术想法之一。”，通过作者使用的形容词“疯狂”，以及作者强调是吸引想象力的技术想法，可知作者是在暗示飞行汽车还处于人们的想象当中，没有成真。因此D选项正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
B选项原文未涉及，无中生有；
C选项原文未涉及，无中生有。
