Up until a few decades ago, our visions of the future were largely—though by no means uniformly—glowingly positive. Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfilment and opportunity for all.
Now utopia has grown unfashionable, as we have gained a deeper appreciation of the range of threats facing us, from asteroid strike to epidemic flu and to climate change. You might even be tempted to assume that humanity has little future to look forward to.
But such gloominess is misplaced. The fossil record shows that many species have endured for millions of years—so why shouldn’t we? Take a broader look at our species’ place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years. Look up Homo sapiens in the “Red List” of threatened species of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and you will read: “Listed as Least Concern as the species is very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline.”
So what does our deep future hold? A growing number of researchers and organizations are now thinking seriously about that question. For example, the Long Now Foundation has as its flagship project a mechanical clock that is designed to still be marking time thousands of years hence.
Perhaps willfully, it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future. The potential evolution of today’s technology, and its social consequences, is dazzlingly complicated, and it’s perhaps best left to science fiction writers and futurologists to explore the many possibilities we can envisage. That’s one reason why we have launched Arc, a new publication dedicated to the near future.
But take a longer view and there is a surprising amount that we can say with considerable assurance. As so often, the past holds the key to the future: we have now identified enough of the long-term patterns shaping the history of the planet, and our species, to make evidence-based forecasts about the situations in which our descendants will find themselves.
This long perspective makes the pessimistic view of our prospects seem more likely to be a passing fad. To be sure, the future is not all rosy. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.
1. Our vision of the future used to be inspired by ________.
2. The IUCN’s “Red List” suggests that human beings are ________.
3. Which of the following is true according to Paragraph 5?
4. To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to ________.
5. Which of the following would be the best title for the text?
问题1选项
A.our desire for lives of fulfillment
B.our faith in science and technology
C.our awareness of potential risks
D.our belief in equal opportunity
问题2选项
A.a sustained species
B.a threat to the environment
C.the world’s dominant power
D.a misplaced race
问题3选项
A.Arc helps limit the scope of futurological studies.
B.Technology offers solutions to social problems.
C.The interest in science fiction is on the rise.
D.Our immediate future is hard to conceive.
问题4选项
A.explore our planet’s abundant resources
B.adopt an optimistic view of the world
C.draw on our experience from the past
D.curb our ambition to reshape history
问题5选项
A.Uncertainty about Our Future
B.Evolution of the Human Species
C.The Ever-bright Prospects of Mankind
D.Science, Technology and Humanity
第1题:B
第2题:A
第3题:D
第4题:C
第5题:C
第1题:
【整体分析】
来源:New Scientist《新科学家》于2012年2月29日刊登的文章The Future is Bright for Humanity(人类的未来是光明的)。
主题:本文主要探讨了对人类未来展望的变化和观点。从过去乐观向未来悲观的转变,再到强调人类在宇宙中的长期生存潜力。文章指出,尽管面临各种威胁,但基于对地球和人类历史的认知,我们有能力减少风险并改善后代的状况。同时,文章也提到了研究人员和组织对未来进行思考和预测的重要性。虽然未来并非完全光明,但通过深入了解和行动,我们可以为人类创造更好的未来。
结构:
【试题解析】
【选项释义】
Our vision of the future used to be inspired by ________. 我们对未来的设想曾经受到________的激励。
A. our desire for lives of fulfillment A. 我们对充实生活的渴望
B. our faith in science and technology B. 我们对科学和技术的信心
C. our awareness of potential risks C. 我们对潜在风险的认识
D. our belief in equal opportunity D. 我们对机会平等的信念
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词Our vision of the future used to可以定位到文章第一段第二句“科学和技术(Science and technology)将治愈人类的所有疾病,为所有人带来满足和机会”,说明我们对未来的设想抱有乐观态度来自于对科学技术的信心,因此B选项“我们对科学和技术的信心”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“我们对充实生活的渴望”和D选项“我们对机会平等的信念”,由Science and technology would cure all the ills of humanity, leading to lives of fulfilment and opportunity for all.(科学和技术将治愈人类的所有疾病,为所有人带来满足和机会。)可知,生活充实和机会平等是科学技术带来的结果,而不是乐观态度的来源,属于曲解原文;
C选项“我们对潜在风险的认识”在文中没有提及,属于无中生有。
第2题:
【选项释义】
The IUCN’s “Red List” suggests that human beings are ________. 世界自然保护联盟的《濒危物种红色名录》表明,人类是________。
A. a sustained species A. 一个持久生存的物种
B. a threat to the environment B. 对环境的一种威胁
C. the world’s dominant power
C. 是世界上的主导力量
D. a misplaced race D. 一个错位的种族
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词Red List可以定位到文章第三段第四句“在世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)《濒危物种红色名录》中搜索智人,你会看到:被列为‘无危物种’,因为该物种分布广泛、适应能力强,目前数量在增长,并且没有主要威胁导致种群总量下降(very widely distributed, adaptable, currently increasing, and there are no major threats resulting in an overall population decline)”,说明人类是一个可以持续生存的物种,因此A选项“一个持久生存的物种”正确。
【干扰项排除】
B选项“对环境的一种威胁”和C选项“是世界上的主导力量”在文中没有提及,属于无中生有;
D选项“一个错位的种族”,由But such gloominess is misplaced.(但这种悲观是错误的。)可知,错位的是悲观的观点,而不是人类这个种族,属于偷换概念。
第3题:
【选项释义】
Which of the following is true according to Paragraph 5? 根据第5段,以下哪项是正确的?
A. Arc helps limit the scope of futurological studies. A. 《天穹》有助于限制未来学研究的范围。
B. Technology offers solutions to social problems. B. 技术为社会问题提供了解决方案。
C. The interest in science fiction is on the rise. C. 人们对科幻小说的兴趣正在上升。
D. Our immediate future is hard to conceive. D. 我们眼前的未来是很难想象的。
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词Paragraph 5可以定位到文章第五段第一句“或许是有意为之,想象这样长时间的跨度可能比想象更近期的未来更容易(it may be easier to think about such lengthy timescales than about the more immediate future)”,说明眼下的未来比较难以想象,因此D选项“我们眼前的未来是很难想象的。”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“《天穹》有助于限制未来学研究的范围。”,B选项“技术为社会问题提供了解决方案。”和C选项“人们对科幻小说的兴趣正在上升。”在文中均没有提及,属于无中生有。
第4题:
【选项释义】
To ensure the future of mankind, it is crucial to ________. 为了确保人类的未来,关键是________。
A. explore our planet’s abundant resources A. 探索我们星球的丰富资源
B. adopt an optimistic view of the world B. 对世界采取一种乐观的看法
C. draw on our experience from the past C. 借鉴我们过去的经验
D. curb our ambition to reshape history D. 遏制我们重塑历史的野心
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词the future of mankind可以定位到文章第六段第二句“就像往常一样,过去揭示了未来的关键(the past holds the key to the future):我们已经确定了塑造地球和我们物种历史的许多长期模式,可以基于证据进行关于后代将面临的情况的预测”,说明至关重要的是吸取过去的经验来预测未来的环境,因此C选项“借鉴我们过去的经验”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“探索我们星球的丰富资源”,B选项“对世界采取一种乐观的看法”和D选项“遏制我们重塑历史的野心”在文中均没有提及,属于无中生有。
第5题:
【选项释义】
Which of the following would be the best title for the text? 以下哪项是本文的最佳标题?
A. Uncertainty about Our Future A. 对我们的未来的不确定性
B. Evolution of the Human Species B. 人类物种的进化
C. The Ever-bright Prospects of Mankind C. 人类光明的前景
D. Science, Technology and Humanity D. 科学、技术与人类
【考查点】主旨大意题。
【解题思路】本文的主要观点是,尽管人类面临许多威胁,但我们仍然有很大的机会在未来数十万年甚至数百万年内生存下去。文中强调了人类物种的适应性和广泛分布,以及基于证据的预测,显示出积极的未来,因此C选项“人类光明的前景”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“对我们的未来的不确定性”和D选项“科学、技术与人类”只在文章的某部分提及,不能概括全文的主旨大意,属于以偏概全;
B选项“人类物种的进化”在文中没有提及,属于无中生有。
【重点词汇】
vision /ˈvɪʒən/ n. 想象;憧憬
glowingly /ˈɡloʊɪŋli/ adv. 光彩夺目地;热情洋溢地
uniformly /juːˈnɪfɔːrmi/ adv. 一致地;相同地
fulfilment /fʊlˈfɪlmənt/ n. 实现;满足;成就感
unfashionable /ʌnˈfæʃənəbəl/ adj. 不时尚的;不合时宜的
appreciation /əˌpriːʃiˈeɪʃən/ n. 欣赏;感激;鉴别力
gloominess /ˈɡluːmɪnəs/ n. 忧郁;阴暗
species /ˈspiːʃiːz/ n. 物种
adaptable /əˈdæptəbəl/ adj. 适应性强的;可改编的
overall /ˈoʊvərɔːl/ adj. 全部的;总体的
descendant /dɪˈsɛndənt/ n. 后代;子孙
prospect /ˈprɑːspɛkt/ n. 前景;展望
a passing fad 一时的风尚
take a longer view 从更长远的角度看待
improve the lot 改善处境
【长难句分析】
1. Take a broader look at our species’ place in the universe, and it becomes clear that we have an excellent chance of surviving for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years.
【结构分析】
【补充分析】
① it是形式主语,that引导的主语从句为真正的主语,表示我们有很好的机会在未来存活下去是很明显的;
② if not hundreds为插入语,扩大了时间范围的可能性,强调人类可能具有更长久的生存能力。
【参考译文】对我们这个物种在宇宙中的位置进行更广泛的观察,很显然,即使无法生存几十万年,我们也很有可能再继续生存几万年。
2. But we are now knowledgeable enough to reduce many of the risks that threatened the existence of earlier humans, and to improve the lot of those to come.
【结构分析】
【补充分析】
① that引导定语从句,修饰risks,进一步解释了前面提到的风险,并具体指的是那些威胁着早期人类存在的风险。
【参考译文】但我们现在已经足够了解,可以减少许多威胁早期人类生存的风险,并改善后代的境况。
【全文翻译】
直到几十年前,我们对未来的展望尽管绝不一致,但大多数情况下都是积极而光明的。科学和技术将治愈人类的所有疾病,为所有人带来满足和机会。
现在,随着我们对威胁的范围有了更深刻的认识,从小行星撞击到流感,再到气候变化,乌托邦变得不再时尚。你甚至可能会禁不住认为,人类几乎没有未来可期。
但这种悲观是错误的。化石记录显示,许多物种已经存活了数百万年,那么为什么我们不能呢?对我们这个物种在宇宙中的位置进行更广泛的观察,很显然,即使无法生存几十万年,我们也很有可能再继续生存几万年。在世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)《濒危物种红色名录》中搜索智人,你会看到:“被列为‘无危物种’,因为该物种分布广泛、适应能力强,目前数量在增长,并且没有主要威胁导致种群总量下降。”
那么,我们遥远的未来会是什么样子?越来越多的研究人员和组织正在认真思考这个问题。例如,恒今基金会的旗舰项目是设计一座机械钟,数千年后仍能标记时间。
或许是有意为之,想象这样长时间的跨度可能比想象更近期的未来更容易。当今技术的潜在演变及其社会后果十分复杂,令人眼花缭乱,或许最好由科幻作家和未来学家去探索我们可以设想的许多可能性。这也是我们创办《天穹》这本专注于近期未来的新刊物的一个原因。
但是,如果放眼更长远,我们可以非常有把握地说出许多内容。就像往常一样,过去揭示了未来的关键:我们已经确定了塑造地球和我们物种历史的许多长期模式,可以基于证据进行关于后代将面临的情况的预测。
这种长远的视角使得对我们前景的悲观看法似乎更有可能只是一时的风潮。当然,未来并非一片光明。但我们现在已经足够了解,可以减少许多威胁早期人类生存的风险,并改善后代的境况。