Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as “steering the economy to a soft landing” or “a touch on the brakes”, makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence there is an analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.
Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July. This is a long way below the double-digit rates which many countries experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s.
It is also less than most forecasters had predicted. In late 1994 the panel of economists which The Economist polls each month said that America’s inflation rate would average 3.5% in 1995. In fact, it fell to 2.6% in August, and is expected to average only about 3% for the year as a whole. In Britain and Japan inflation is running half a percentage point below the rate predicted at the end of last year. This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.
Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack. America’s capacity utilization, for example, hit historically high levels earlier this year, and its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off on the past.
Why has inflation proved so mild? The most thrilling explanation is, unfortunately, a little defective. Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.
1. According to the text, making monetary policy changes ________.
2. From the text we learn that ________.
3. The text suggests that ________.
4. By saying “This is no flash in the pan” (Paragraph 3), the author implies that ________.
5. How does the author feel about the present situation?
6. The author will probably agree that ________.
问题1选项
A.is comparable to driving a car
B.is similar to carrying out scientific work
C.will not influence the economy immediately
D.will have an immediate impact on the inflation rate
问题2选项
A.there is a clear relationship between inflation and interest rates
B.the economy always follows particular trends
C.the current economic problems are entirely predictable
D.the present economic situation is better than expected
问题3选项
A.the previous economic models are still applicable
B.an extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation
C.a high unemployment rate will result from inflation
D.interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy
问题4选项
A.the low inflation rate will continue
B.the inflation rate will rise again
C.inflation will disappear entirely
D.there is no inflation at present
问题5选项
A.Tolerant.
B.Indifferent.
C.Disappointed
D.Surprised.
问题6选项
A.monetary policy plays an important role in economy
B.there is no predictable correlation between monetary policy and economy
C.central bank are decisive in controlling inflation
D.most economists have been right in their prediction of inflation
第1题:C
第2题:D
第3题:B
第4题:A
第5题:D
第6题:B
第1题:
【选项释义】
According to the text, making monetary policy changes ________. 根据这篇文章，改变货币政策________。
A. is comparable to driving a car A. 相当于驾驶汽车
B. is similar to carrying out scientific work B. 与进行科学工作相似
C. will not influence the economy immediately C. 不会立即影响经济
D. will have an immediate impact on the inflation rate D. 会立即影响通货膨胀率
【考查点】事实细节题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词making monetary policy changes可以定位到文章第一段第四句And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy.（而且，在政策变化对经济产生任何影响之前，会有很长的可变滞后期。），说明货币政策的变动不会立即对经济产生影响。因此C选项“不会立即影响经济”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“相当于驾驶汽车”，虽然文章中提到实施货币政策就像开一辆挡风玻璃发黑、后视镜破裂且方向盘有问题的汽车，但这是比喻货币政策的复杂和不确定性，而不是直接比较货币政策变化本身，属于曲解原文；
B选项“与进行科学工作相似”，文章明确指出货币政策并不是一种精确的科学工作，属于反向干扰；
D选项“会立即影响通货膨胀率”，文章明确指出了政策变动对经济的影响有滞后性，属于反向干扰。
第2题:
【选项释义】
From the text we learn that ________. 从文中我们可以了解到________。
A. there is a clear relationship between inflation and interest rates A. 通货膨胀率和利率之间有明显的关系
B. the economy always follows particular trends B. 经济总是遵循特定的趋势
C. the current economic problems are entirely predictable C. 当前的经济问题是完全可以预测的
D. the present economic situation is better than expected D. 目前的经济形势比预期的要好
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据D选项关键词present economic situation可以定位到文章第二段第二句Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July.（去年，七大工业经济体的平均通货膨胀率仅为2.3%，接近30年来的最低水平，今年7月又略升至2.5%。），接着第三段第一句指出It is also less than most forecasters had predicted.（这也低于大多数预测者的预测。），同时第三段最后一句提到over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America（在过去几年中，英国和美国的通货膨胀率一直低于预期），说明现在的通货膨胀率低于预期，即目前的经济状况比预期更好。因此D选项“目前的经济形势比预期的要好”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“通货膨胀率和利率之间有明显的关系”，由The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain.（利率与通货膨胀之间的联系是不确定的。）可知，通货膨胀与利率之间没有明确关系，属于反向干扰；
B选项“经济总是遵循特定的趋势”在文中没有提及，属于无中生有；
C选项“当前的经济问题是完全可以预测的”，文章多次强调了经济和通货膨胀的不可预测性，属于反向干扰。
第3题:
【选项释义】
The text suggests that ________. 文中认为________。
A. the previous economic models are still applicable A. 以前的经济模式仍然适用
B. an extremely low jobless rate will lead to inflation B. 极低的失业率会导致通货膨胀
C. a high unemployment rate will result from inflation C. 高失业率将导致通货膨胀
D. interest rates have an immediate effect on the economy D. 利率对经济有直接影响
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据B选项关键词extremely low jobless rate可以定位到文章第四段第二句its jobless rate (5.6% in August) has fallen below most estimates of the natural rate of unemployment—the rate below which inflation has taken off on the past.（美国的失业率（8月份为5.6%）也低于大多数人对自然失业率的估计值——而在过去，当失业率低于这个水平时，通货膨胀率便开始上升。），说明当失业率低于自然失业率时，历史上曾出现过通货膨胀上升的情况，所以极低的失业率可能会导致通货膨胀。因此B选项“极低的失业率会导致通货膨胀”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“以前的经济模式仍然适用”，由Some economists argue that powerful structural changes in the world have upended the old economic models that were based upon the historical link between growth and inflation.（一些经济学家认为，世界范围内的强大结构性变化颠覆了基于增长与通货膨胀之间历史联系的旧经济模型）可知，以前的模型可能不再适用，属于反向干扰；
C选项“高失业率将导致通货膨胀”，文章说的是低失业率可能导致通货膨胀，属于反向干扰；
D选项“利率对经济有直接影响”，由And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy.（而且，在政策变化对经济产生任何影响之前，会有很长的可变滞后期。）可知，利率不会直接对经济产生影响，属于反向干扰。
第4题:
【选项释义】
By saying “This is no flash in the pan” (Paragraph 3), the author implies that ________. 作者说“这不是昙花一现”（第三段），暗示了________。
A. the low inflation rate will continue A. 低通货膨胀率将持续下去
B. the inflation rate will rise again B. 通货膨胀率会再次上升
C. inflation will disappear entirely C. 通货膨胀会完全消失
D. there is no inflation at present D. 目前没有通货膨胀
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词This is no flash in the pan可以定位到文章第三段最后一句This is no flash in the pan; over the past couple of years, inflation has been consistently lower than expected in Britain and America.（这并非昙花一现；在过去几年中，英国和美国的通货膨胀率一直低于预期。），说明低通胀率已经持续了一段时间，并不是短暂的现象，由此可以推断出低通胀率将会持续。因此A选项“低通货膨胀率将持续下去”正确。
【干扰项排除】
B选项“通货膨胀率会再次上升”，文章说的是低通货膨胀率将持续下去，而不是上升，属于反向干扰；
C选项“通货膨胀会完全消失”，文章只是说低通胀率将会持续，不代表会完全消失，属于过度推断；
D选项“目前没有通货膨胀”，文章说的是目前通胀率低，而不是目前不存在通胀，属于过度推断。
第5题:
【选项释义】
How does the author feel about the present situation? 作者对目前的形势有何感想？
A. Tolerant. A. 宽容。
B. Indifferent. B. 无动于衷。
C. Disappointed. C. 失望。
D. Surprised. D. 惊讶。
【考查点】观点态度题。
【解题思路】根据题干关键词the present situation可以定位到文章第四段第一句Economists have been particularly surprised by favorable inflation figures in Britain and the United States, since conventional measures suggest that both economies, and especially America’s, have little productive slack.（经济学家们对英国和美国有利的通胀数字尤其感到惊讶，因为传统的衡量标准表明，这两个经济体，尤其是美国，几乎没有什么生产性闲置。），说明作者对于当前经济形势感到惊讶，因为它好于预期。因此D选项“惊讶。”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“宽容。”，B选项“无动于衷。”和C选项“失望。”在文中均无法体现，属于无中生有。
第6题:
【选项释义】
The author will probably agree that ________. 作者可能会同意________。
A. monetary policy plays an important role in economy A. 货币政策在经济中发挥着重要作用
B. there is no predictable correlation between monetary policy and economy B. 货币政策与经济之间不存在可预测的相关性
C. central bank are decisive in controlling inflation C. 中央银行在控制通货膨胀方面起着决定性作用
D. most economists have been right in their prediction of inflation D. 大多数经济学家对通货膨胀的预测是正确的
【考查点】推理判断题。
【解题思路】根据B选项关键词correlation between monetary policy and economy可以定位到文章第一段第三句The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain.（利率与通货膨胀之间的联系是不确定的。）和最后一句Hence there is an analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel.（因此，有人将货币政策的实施比喻为驾驶一辆挡风玻璃变黑、后视镜破裂、方向盘失灵的汽车。），说明货币政策与经济之间的关系是不清晰且难以预测的，没有明确的关联。因此B选项“货币政策与经济之间不存在可预测的相关性”正确。
【干扰项排除】
A选项“货币政策在经济中发挥着重要作用”，文中强调的是货币政策不确定性和难以预测性，而不是它的重要性，属于曲解原文；
C选项“中央银行在控制通货膨胀方面起着决定性作用”，虽然文中提到中央银行家们近来似乎有很多值得夸耀的地方，但不代表他们有决定性作用，属于过度推断；
D选项“大多数经济学家对通货膨胀的预测是正确的”，文中提到实际上通胀低于大多数经济学家的预期，说明他们的预测并不准确，属于反向干扰。
